Researching conditional probability problem solving
The chapter is organized into two parts. In the first one, the main protagonist is the conditional probability problem. We show a theoretical study about conditional probability problems, identifying a particular family of problems we call ternary problems of conditional probability. We define the notions of Level, Category and Type of a problem in order to classify them into sub-families and in order to study them better. We also offer a tool we call trinomial graph that functions as a generative model for this family of problems. We show the syntax of the model that allows researchers and teachers to translate a problem in terms of the trinomial graphs language, and the consequences of this translation.In the second part, there are two main related protagonists: ternary problems of conditional probability and students solving them. Thus, the students' probabilistic thinking is observed in a broader problem-solving context, in relation to the task variables of problems: structure, context and data format variables. We report some of the results of our investigation into students' behaviours, showing how these depend in any manner on those task variables.
(2014)., Researching conditional probability problem solving, in E. J. Chernoff & B. Sriraman (eds.), Probabilistic thinking, Dordrecht, Springer, pp. 613-639.
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